Polls suggest growing war weariness on the part of the American public, with a desire for a more balanced US foreign policy.

According to a NewsNation/DecisionDesk HQ, three-quarters of Republican respondents and 68% of Democrat respondents want to avoid military involvement in the Russo-Ukranian war.

In the same survey, respondents from both sides had similar thoughts about a potential battle between China and Taiwan. Approximately 60% of Republicans and Democrats backed options that did not involve sending US troops to the area. 

"These numbers look like the parties are coming together in terms of their attitudes on foreign policy," said Mick Mulvaney, NewsNation's political and economic correspondent.

A poll by the American Arab Institute and Rainbow PUSH Coalition reveals a strong inclination among American voters towards Congressional candidates who support cease-fires, especially in Gaza.

Thousands of American households and veterans are still reeling from the aftermath of the Afghanistan and Iraq military deployments.

The non-interventionist sentiment may transcend party lines, with notable support among independents as well as key Democratic constituencies such as young and non-white voters. Meanwhile, a large segment of the Republican Party has grown critical of continued financial support for Ukraine as it fails to reach a peace agreement with Russia, highlighted by the recently reported trip by conservative commentator Tucker Carlson to Moscow.

Escalationism

Articles by the Wall Street Journal and Responsible Statecraft indicate that a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine was negotiated in April of 2022 in Turkey, but was scuttled after then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson pressured Kiev to back out of the deal. 

Meanwhile, the conflict continues to escalate on the ground. The Ukraine fortress city of Avdeevka, which has been used to shell separatists in Donetsk city for the last decade, is now appearing likely soon to fall to Russian forces.  Separatists in Donetsk and the Donbas region rebelled against Ukraine in the wake of the Maidan ouster of the country's elected government in 2014.

The continued conflict is also impacting international financial markets. Russia has promised a serious retaliation if the US and its NATO allies proceed with confiscating frozen Russian Central Bank assets housed in the United States, according to The Guardian. 

The threat of a widening war looms on the horizon in the Middle East as well. Israel’s invasion of Gaza has prompted outcries of anger and grief across the region and worldwide. The invasion occurred after Hamas's October 7 attack into Israel.  With much of Gaza now in ruins, strikes and counter strikes have grown between the US and pro-Iranian groups in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. 

In recent days the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that Israel's government is plausibly committing genocide and ordered Israel to prevent potential further acts of genocide. Washington's support however, as reported by The Intercept, allows Israeli officials to ignore the court ruling and continue the military campaign.

The Middle East has been wracked by years of civil war in Libya and Syria, the US occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq, and devastating western sanctions on Iran and Syria.

The US Political Scene

Domestically, the Biden Administration’s refusal to push for a ceasefire is turning many potential young voters away from his campaign, and spawned disruptive protests at Biden election rallies.  

The mayor of Dearborn, Michigan, has refused to even meet with Biden’s team to discuss the upcoming election because of the Administration's failure to push for a ceasefire. Michigan will be a key swing state in the November 2024 presidential election.

At a time when the country is battling rising inflation and increasing prices of commodities, and recovering from the Covid-19 crisis, public sentiment is against getting involved in further conflict. 

As we’ve previously reported, oceanic shipping rates have doubled and tripled, impacted by the Russo-Ukrainian war and saber rattling with China, now further intensified by events in the Red Sea. This price hike is felt strongly at the ground level, leading to increased costs for construction and infrastructure projects across the US. Regular everyday expenses on groceries and other goods have risen as well.

President Biden's reluctance to promote de-escalation, such as with a ceasefire in Gaza or a peace between Russia and Ukraine, may lead to mounting disillusionment especially among young voters and independents. This sentiment could drive these demographics toward abstention or into backing smaller third parties such as the Green Party or Libertarian party, and potentially leave an opening for a return of former President Trump. 

Another wild card is the independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.. He has called for peace negotiations with Russia, however, on Gaza he's taken a hardline stance in supporting Israel's invasion. Only the Green Party candidate Jill Stein and the independent candidate Cornell West have pushed for an immediate peaceful end to both conflicts. The Libertarian Party has yet to announce a candidate for the 2024 presidential election. 

Balancing the demands of domestic challenges with international diplomacy and human rights in an increasingly multipolar world remains a key concern for the future trajectory of the United States.